Bracketology II

If you’re seeing this on “Doing something” it’ll be moved to Sport Junkie soon.  Don’t fret.

 

Round 1 is in the books (so is round 2, but we’ll get to that in a minute).  At the end of round 1, picking only favorites, I’m 23-9.  There are a couple of big upsets with a #3 and #4 going home early.  5 through 12 were all 50/50, except for the 8/9 slot that was 3-1 in favor of the 8’s.  Honestly I’m a little surprised that fully half of the “upset seeds” pulled off the upset.  I was expecting something more along the lines of a 3-1 shot in favor of the higher seeds.  At this stage of the game (end of round 1) there is a real possibility of some party crashers in the Sweet 16—not a real big possibility, but a real shot nonetheless.  Even more significant is a chance that someone from the middle will work their way into the Elite 8.  Regardless, with history and statistics on my side, this is where I say “I hope you bottom seeds enjoy it, because in a game or two you’re going home.”  If the middle seeds get lucky they may be able to hang around, but I don’t count anyone as a Cinderella unless they’re seeded 9 or lower.

 

In round 2 on the first day we have 1 notable upset with #7 seed swapping plane tickets with a #2.  Somehow Wichita State’s family talked the doctors into not unplugging the device for just a few more days, assuming North Carolina takes care of business…

 

BUT THEY DON’T!  Wow, at the close of round 2 there is a very real possibility of a gate crasher in the Elite 8.  Not a Cinderella story, but a good story all the same.  After looking at my updated bracket there are actually 2 teams at the end of round 2 who have a good shot of gate crashing.  Unfortunately they play each other—George Mason and Wichita State.  No, Bradley(13) will not beat Memphis.  Their run will end in the Sweet 16.  I’m sure they enjoyed it.  I’m sure it was fun.  Mad props to you for getting that far.  But Memphis is better—there’s a reason they’re #1 and you’re not.  However, Bradley and George Mason win the prize for making the rest of the tournament interesting and exciting.  There are now a thousand new variables for UCONN on that side of the regional bracket.  What fun.

 

In the context of my system, though, consider this.  There are 2 teams out of 65 who made it from the bottom half of the bracket to the Sweet 16.  Every year 1 or 2 manage it-out of each set of 16.  So, 1 team out of the bottom 8 in each regional bracket is 12.5%.  Probably lower if you take into consideration relative strengths of the teams.  Bet on the favorites, enjoy the upsets for the pure sport of it.  Through 48 games I’ve picked 33 winners and missed on 15 of them.  

 

Or better still, love the sport, be a stat junkie, and don’t gamble.  [I haven’t put any money into this, by the way, which means I’m already ahead of most of the people who bet on college sports.]

 

So, into the Sweet 16 we go.  I’ve still got 10 horses running and only 6 have bowed out—3 in the Washington DC regional alone.  The good news is that since UCONN is facing a #5 instead of a #4 their chances of getting into the Final 4 are even greater than they normally would be (though complacency can be the bane of even the best teams), and their shot at the championship is looking good—not great, mind you, only good.  How cool would it be for the championship game to feature a gate crasher?  Before the 7-11 matchup happens it’s hardly even worth seriously considering, but statistical fantasies are allowed in March. 

 

What fun.