Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Something curious

I’ve been thinking about the “situation in Iraq” lately.

It started with the government collapsing under the weight of the US Military, then Shiite and Sunni militias fighting against the US military, then the Shiites gaining control of the new government and Al Queda gaining a foothold putting the Sunni militias on the outs with the US.  But while Shiites were slaughtering Sunnis, they were also still fighting the US Military and the nation effectively slid into a very messy civil war of sorts.

 

Since the “surge”, though, it would seem that the US has decided the Shiite government is permanently dysfunctional and has sided with the homegrown Sunni militias.  The Sunni militias have turned on Al Queda and the Shiite militias have laid down their arms—for now.

 

The result has effectively been the end of what appeared to be a civil war.  The Shiite militias are no longer cleaning out Sunni neighborhoods.  Sunni militias are no longer working with Al Queda to attack Shiites or, by association, US Soldiers.  Al Queda still slips through, but the frequency is markedly down.  Now what we have is the minority Sunnis patrolling their own streets warily eyeing the Shiites across the bridge, and the Shiites warily eyeing the Sunnis across the bridge, but not shooting at each other.  Meanwhile, the government is still in perpetual clusterfuck.

 

I think that’s a curious way to postpone a civil war.  I say postpone because once the biggest dog on the block leaves you’re going to have a predominantly Shiite and dysfunctional government and an armed, organized, citizen militia.  There will basically be a “govern or else” atmosphere at some point…

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