I shot the sherrif

Tomorrow I run.  Can’t wait, actually.

 

But first:

 

Ok, last Wednesday there was a robbery in Jamaica.  No big deal, sure.  There are plenty of robberies there.  It’s a poor island.  Stuff happens.

 

Except this was a robbery of a lily white tour group from the Carnival Conquest while they were on an excursion to a banana plantation on the island.

 

**Disclaimer:  I went on the Conquest the week before the robbery and I fell in love with the whole damn country.  I’m totally going to move there and open up a barbeque stand.  Oh my GOD IT’S A FABULOUS PARADISE THERE!!!

 

Ok, back to the robbery.

A group of 17 tourists were on an excursion (here is where I include the obligatory women and children part, sigh).  Armed bandit came out of the bushes—one guy with a gun, one with a machete—and they began to rough up the women and scare the children (but fuck the guys, kill and maim them all you want) and stole passports, credit cards, cash, etc.  Nobody was hurt.  A few folks were scared.  That’s all.

 

2 days later one of the thieves were shot dead by local law enforcement.

 

A post to a message board about the incident was “at least some justice was served”.

 

Excuse me, but justice?  JUSTICE?  17 people going on a vacation that cost more than most people on that island make in 5 years, on an excursion to a destination that most residents couldn’t afford admittance to, are robbed of maybe 2 days’ wages and of nothing that couldn’t be replaced (except cash, stupid tourists) and killing one of the guys is JUSTIFIED?  Huh?  How so?  I just don’t understand that logic.  Because you created some minor discomfort, you must lose your life AND your family lose a source of livelihood, a village a source of production, etcetera.

 

No, the robbery was not appropriate.  It was illegal.  It was immoral.  But then again, which of these folks would have given freely if asked?  Sure, they all say they would… now.  But would they really have freely given before?  Honestly I didn’t care much about dickering over a buck here or there.  I paid $3 for a $2 beer, no sweat.  It was a good beer.  Really good beer.  I left more than my cash on that island. 

 

Here’s an idea.  Instead of killing all the folks who are preying on tourists, maybe try and figure out a way to raise the tide so that the tourists aren’t preying on a cheap and backwards island.  Maybe if you raise the tide and invest in means for these people, the lily white sunburned tourists won’t have such giant targets on their backs.

2 Hours

It took me 2 hours to get to work today.

Why?  Because the bus I was attempting to catch was 2 minutes early.  The next bus didn’t stop at the transit center (unbeknownst to me) and went into downtown.  From downtown I had to catch yet another bus to get to the Galleria, which dropped me off 10 walking minutes away from my office.

 

Ways I could have gotten to the office faster (12 mile drive via the west loop, 30 – 45 minutes in the morning):

1. Ride my bike
2. Run
3. Drive
4. Cab
5. Catapult
6. Drive to Intercontinental airport, catch a flight to Corpus Christi, fall out of plane over the Galleria.  Hell, that might have been less painful.

 

Ugh.

 

All the same, it was very relaxing.  The trip home was better last night, though.

Catch 22

The US has been embroiled in a nasty catch 22.

 

We told the Palestinian Authority “Hold direct elections”.  They did.  They elected Hamas to leadership.

 

We then told them “you elected the wrong guys” and cut off aid.

 

This is hypocrisy in action.  Why?

 

Well, if we’re committed to “democracy now”, then we have to be willing to accept the consequences.  We can’t, out of one side of our mouths, say “democracy now for all” and out of the other say “you elected the wrong guy” and cut off support.  A democratically elected government—assuming the election process is fair and open—is a democratically elected government whether we like that government or not.  Period.  It’s hypocritical to say that it’s arrogant to say some people “aren’t ready” for democracy, while at the same time say that the government they elected was the wrong government.  It’s no different from installing a puppet government to rule a nation.  On the one hand, you had select a military ruler to take over, on the other you rig an election to ensure the “right guy” is elected.

 

And if you have a hypocritical foreign policy, then you’re going to have credibility problems and trouble winning hearts and minds.  Wonder why the US government has a bad image overseas?  Because for the last several years our government has said one thing and done another.  If you’re going to be all for the status quo, the SAY you’re all for the status quo and don’t do things to rock the boat.  If you’re all for democracy now, then work for democracy now and support even the governments that are elected that you don’t like.  Don’t go supporting tin pot dictators simply because you’re scared about the government that may take over in Pakistan when he’s gone.  Oops, did I mention Pakistan directly?  I guess I meant to do that.

 

Of course, on the other hand you can be honest about what the foreign policy really is.  “We’re going to remake the world in the image we want it to be.  Some dictatorships are ok.  Some dictatorships are not ok.  Some military intervention is ok.  Some is not.  It depends on what we feel is right, because we are the law.”

 

This is the world of a single superpower.  Imperial rule.  Straight and simple.  What the empire says is what the empire does.

 

Oh that change is coming in the winds…  and coming soon.

Screech is a dick

By the way, in case you didn’t know, Dustin Diamond…  you know, Screech…  is a total dick.

Complete and total douche.

 

Seriously.  Call him up (or e-mail him) and tell him so.

 

Ok, to be totally fair, he may not be a total dick.  He may only be acting.

 

I’m not convinced he’s that good of an actor, though.

Oh no, oh no, oh no...

Bob Barker says that the folks at The Price Is Right are talking to Rosie the Hut.

 

Oh no.  Oh nonononononono.

 

Admittedly, since I’ve had a job for the last several years I haven’t watched TPIR as much as I used to, but I still love the show.

 

And to put that fat loudmouth in the host’s spot would just…  sigh…  I so can’t stand the sound of her voice.  Or her personality.

 

Oh please say it ain’t so.

 

I'M BAAACK!!!!

Yes, I’m back from vacation and ready and rearin’ to start training.  I even hit the gym and track a couple of times on the boat.  What fun.

 

I’ll probably start running Thursday and really kick it into gear by the end of the month.  I feel good.  I feel strong.  I feel rested and ready.

 

Speaking of good and strong…  (not really, but I’m changing the subject here)…

Howabout high gas prices.

You think they’re high here?

 

We spend a day in Jamaica (mon) and we tour a little bit of the countryside.  Talking with our tour guide we discover that mandated minimum wage in Jamaica (mon) is 40 Jamaican dollars (or j$ from here on out).  To put it in perspective 1 US$ is 60 j$ on the ground exchange (CIA fact-book says $65:1).  That’s right, the mandated minimum wage in Jamaica is 40j$.  That’s each week, by the way.  About $0.67 a week. 

 

We make $7.15 per hour as a federally mandated minimum wage.  Or about $429 j$.

 

We drive by a gas station and the sign says $67.00.  We say “SIXTY SEVEN DOLLARS A GALLON?!?!” before we even know about the minimum wage or exchange rate on the ground.  The guide says “No, that’s per liter.”

 

Well, you metric junkies know that there’s about 4 liters to a gallon (a little more, but don’t muddy up the math, k?).  So, work your exchange rate… ok, now multiply… ok, yup.  That’s something like $4 for a gallon of gas.

No big deal, gas is cheaper in the US, right?  Right.  But to know how much cheaper, you have to do a little more math.

 

Their minimum wage is about $0.67 a week.  At minimum wages they have to work almost 6 weeks to buy a gallon of gas.  For a typical 13 gallon tank a minimum wager would work 77 weeks.  Fun, huh?  Howabout making that tank last 77 weeks?

The equivalent here would be Johnny Grocery Bagger would have to work 77 weeks for a tank of gas that would cost $22,022, or $1,694 a gallon.

 

Think we don’t have it good here?

Still think $3.00 gas is too expensive?

 

Still think the odds are stacked against the little guy, and you’re the little guy?

 

Jamaica (mon) is such a cool place.  It’s so beautiful, the people are so wonderful…  I’m totally going back.  Maybe to stay.  Maybe.

Absolutely brilliant business idea

Ok, people buy a bunch of crap they don’t need, don’t want, and won’t use.  They buy this crap all the time and it sits in a closet, or garage, or storage unit for years on end.  Soloflexes, “Beans”, doggie sweaters, pots and pans, and all kinds of other crap just sits there and collects dust.  Americans spend $50 billion on pet products that pets don’t give a crap about.  They spend billions on health equipment that they don’t use.  Just gobs of money floating around being pissed away.

Here’s the pitch:

 

Build a website where they can plug in the product they want and the dollar amount they saw it advertised for.  You knock off 5% for coming through your site rather than the manufacturer.

They send the money, and you tell them—up front—that you’re not going to send them the product.  Tell them that instead of actually getting the worthless piece of crap that they’re not going to use, you’re going to simply take their money and send most of it to a charitable organization.  Imagine what the $50 billion a year would do for an African health care organization.  Or cancer research.  Or AIDS research.  Instead of pissing money away on useless crap they don’t need, don’t want, and won’t use, they can pay for it as if they were really getting it, but that money would go to a more useful cause.  You tell them up front so there’s no trickery involved.  They click the “accept” button on the terms of sale.  They’re doing a good thing for the wrong reason.  You’re doing the wrong thing, but for a good reason, and then paying for the wrong thing with a good thing for a good reason.  Everybody wins.

Month is up

1 month.

10 lbs.

 

Not bad.  Not good enough, but not bad.  It’ll do for a cruise.

 

Now to get those passports…

Something troubling

Iraq is not Vietnam in the 60s.

 

It’s Afghanistan in the 80s.

 

It’s the place where militants go to “train”.  The build a few bombs, set them off, then go home with the knowledge of how to build bombs.

 

It took the UNABOMer 5 years to figure out how to make bombs effectively with the right combo of weight and potency.  These guys get to do what Ted did over 5 years in 6 months’ time.

 

And if they track down and kill a couple of these guys, it’s cool.  They have 4 or 6 in a class and the rest get away and go home to blow stuff up on their own. 

 

That’s troublesome.

 

Even without overthrowing the Iraqi government and setting up whatever stupid idea they claim they want to do, they accomplish the goal of disrupting normal commerce.  I know Ted Kaczinski is a nutter, but if you read his manifesto you can get a glimpse into what these terrorists are trying to do.  They’re trying to DISRUPT things now to such an extent that things collapse and a new order takes the place. 

 

The problem is that they don’t understand how large the disruption has to be.

 

No matter, though.  The fact that they can blow up a market is evidence that they can do what they hope to do, all they need is more recruits.  And recruits they get.

 

And these recruits train, and go home, and disrupt.

 

Lather, rinse, repeat.

He set me straight

I said a few days back that Al Gore was beginning to sound like a leader, not just a politician.

 

Well, he set me straight.  He’s dismissed outright an independent run at the White House.  Turns out he really is beholden to the party and not willing to stand up and lead.

 

Whew.  I was beginning to worry that he might earn my vote.

Finally, Cindy's message is being delivered

For all the hijacking of Cindy Sheehan’s message during the previous election cycles, finally, and at long last, her message—the real message, not merely the anti-Bush/anti-republican message the dems and media wanted to present—is being delivered.

What she found, she wrote, was a movement “that often puts personal egos above peace and human life.”

But she said the most devastating conclusion she had reached “was that Casey did indeed die for nothing ... killed by his own country which is beholden to and run by a war machine that even controls what we think.”

“Casey died for a country which cares more about who will be the next American Idol than how many people will be killed in the next few months while Democrats and Republicans play politics with human lives,” she wrote. “It is so painful to me to know that I bought into this system for so many years and Casey paid the price for that allegiance. I failed my boy and that hurts the most.”

Well said, and almost very true.  When war is propagated to further party goals, then the reason to go to war has gotten off track.  When war is protested to further party goals, then the reason to stop the war has gotten off track.  In this case, my enemy’s enemy is not my ally. 

No, my enemy’s enemy is also my enemy.

Just as war at all costs is corrupt, so to is peace at all costs.

Good luck, Cindy.  While I share your cynicism for the direction of the nation at large, I still hold hope that each individual isn’t as vacuous as our national identity suggests. 

America may be off course, but there is still hope for Americans.

Pride Houston

My lovely female wife (or at least someone with a name very close to hers) and I, her lovely male husband, received a letter from “Pride Houston”, the organization the sponsors the annual gay parade here in town.

We were given the opportunity to be a “Friend, with benefits!”

 

For those of you who don’t know, a “friend with benefits” is someone you have no particular amorous feelings for, but have sex with occasionally.  You know, a friend with benefits.

 

Not that there’s anything wrong with that… I was a college student once, too.

 

But at the not-for-profit organization I worked at (and at several LEGIT non-profits I have friends at) they would be appalled at the notion of sending out a direct mailer that included a double entendre of becoming a casual sex partner.

I know the invitation wasn’t to be a casual sex partner, but I also know what the double entendre means, and I’m 100% certain the fine folks who sent this out do as well.

Something I though I'd never find myself actually considering...

First, no, I haven’t paid off my house.  I was just reminding myself why I’m focusing on that first, THEN an investment portfolio.

Second, and even more disturbing…

 

Al Gore is beginning to sound like a (gasp) leader.  When the hell did that happen?  And where’s my coat, I have a feeling hell’s freezing over.

And just to be clear, when I say “leader” I don’t mean democratic or republican leader.  No, that’s a politician.  He sounds like a guy who has seriously dumped politics and has decided to simply be a leader.

I never though I’d even be thinking such crazy thoughts.

Weird.

That stupid caveman

So, how bad does your show have to be for it to be replaced by a 30 minute commercial for Geico every week?

Seriously, Mr. George Lopez, you have brought shame to yourself, your family, your entire village… you should at this point consider changing your name.  If ever there was a person who was completely safe from identity theft, you’d be that guy.  In fact, identity theft might be your best course of career resuscitation—just be sure to steal someone’s identity who has a brighter future than your own.

 

On the up side, ABC has replaced a show that I don’t watch with a show that I won’t watch.  So it’s a win/win situation.

 

Breakfast has changed to 1 egg plus 2 pieces of toast and a glass of OJ.

 

Lunch and dinner are still wild cards.

The Gym is paying off.  I feel absolutely great the day after a workout.  1 hour in the gym and you’re a new man.

Drinking coffee, and I don't care

It was a good weekend.  I mostly behaved myself by way of grubbing down.

Dinner Friday was chicken and rice.

Breakfast Saturday was … uh, I can’t really remember.  Maybe poptarts.

Lunch was Whataburger.  Yea, I know.  Bad me.

Dinner was some horrid chicken thing at the Movie Tavern in Spring.  Awful servers.  Awful food.  Awful everything.  The one in Deerbrook is much, much, much better.

The movie was weak, too.  Don’t pay full price for Spiderman if you can avoid it.

 

Breakfast Sunday was eggs, ham, and waffles.  Yum.  Yummiddyum.

Lunch was … nothing.  I think we skipped lunch.

 

Then we ate at Joe’s Crab Shack.  Every goddam thing there is fried.  Even the tablecloth.  What the hell is up with that?

Fish and broiled shrimp.  I asked for a substitution.  And a beer.

 

This morning I’m drinking coffee and I just don’t give a crap.

 

Tonight I’ll go to the gym again.  Tomorrow I might run.

Fun with math

Lets say you have a $200,000 home that’s paid in full.

Should you take out a loan on the home and invest the money in the stock market?

 

Common sense says “Yea!  Sure!  With interest rates so low, why not?!?”

Math doesn’t agree.

 

Let’s go with a 15 year time line and the cheapest possible loan—an interest only loan where you only pay interest and at the end of the 15 years you liquidate your investment and pay off the loan.  At the end you should be ahead anyway and you can take the profits and live fat and large.

 

Ok, so the interest only loan is going to be 5%, your home is going to appreciate in value 2% a year, or 10% every 5 years, and the investment will give an average 8% a year—roughly what the market does over time.

 

You cash out the loan into $185,000, or almost 93% of your home, because you want to have a little for home improvement or something.  You then take the $185,000 and invest it all, less 10% commission, into something that is a sure fire 8% return (something that doesn’t exist, but I’ll humor you for awhile).

 

The carrying cost for the financing is $770.83.  The monthly appreciation of your home is $333.33 and your assets appreciate at a rate of $1110 a month.  It’s a net worth increase of $672.5 a month.  You’re getting richer each month by sitting on your ass.

 

At the end of 15 years your balance sheet will look like this:

Loan:  -$185,000

Home value: $269,173.67

Investment:  $550,602.43

 

There will also have been a cash outlay of $138,750.0 to cover the interest of the loan, which is part of this calculation as well.  Plus, there’s a “hidden” item that I’ll discuss later.

The net result over 15 years is a net worth of $496,026.09  Not bad considering the alternative would have simply been a house worth $269,173.67.

 

But there’s another alternative.

 

If you can afford $770.83 in carrying costs for the loan, why not forgo the loan and simply plow that money into an investment account for 15 years?

The resulting stream of payments and earnings on the payments would have been $266,737.80.  About 48% of the future value of the $166,500 investment made from the financing option.  However, there are 3 big differences.

1 is that you don’t have to pay off that big loan that’s been looming over your head for the last 15 years.  Another is that you didn’t have negative cash flow going to some finance company.

The net result is that your home and asset totals $498,931.59.  All of which is yours.  Compared to the $496,026.09 net value from the financed option.

 

But wait, I mentioned 3 big differences and only described 2.

 

The third is the “hidden” item mentioned earlier.  That $770.38 you sent to the finance company to carry your loan was a straight expense in the financed option.  Those lost payments would have generated $127,987.80 had they been invested (the difference from the future value of the series of payments in the unfinanced model).  So the $496,026.09 that the financed option yielded doesn’t show the $127,987.80 in opportunity costs that don’t get added into that model that are captured in the cash model.

 

So it turns out that mortgaging your home to invest in the market really doesn’t get you ahead—which is what you’re doing if you choose to invest in the market rather than pay off your home.

 

The difference is even greater if the returns on the investments are flat—0% for 15 years, which never, ever, ever would happen—and the resultant net worth at the end of the game is $111,923.67 versus $370,943.79.

To actually end up ahead of the game using financing, you’d have to invest to earn 11% over the course of 15 years—an unprecedented return on investments in the history of the market.  Not that it can’t be done, just that you shouldn’t normally plan for abnormal returns.

 

Much better to pay off your house (as quickly as possible) and continue to invest that house payment into something that brings returns free and clear of any liability.

Another day

Lunch yesterday:  3 bean burritos and a medium Dr. Pepper.

Dinner:  Lemon pepper chicken, green beans, taters, with water.

Desert:  Li’l Debbie swiss rolls.

 

Didn’t hit the gym on account of 1. laziness and 2. rain.  Yes, I know the gym has a roof, but that’s why 1. was part of the reasoning.

 

Breakfast:  Cinnamon swirl coffee cake (reduced fat from Starbux) and a venti mocha latte.

 

Lunch:  Probably a sandwich… not sure yet.

 

Still haven’t visited the scale in the AM, though.  Maybe tomorrow.

 

Tonight should be a gym night, but we also should recycle more.  One of those will happen first.

 

Day 4 and going strong

Last night, shrimp primavera, with salad.

Yum.

Also a frappachino from the bottle (mocha, yum).

 

I didn’t check in with the scale this morning.

 

This morning, 2 brown sugar pop tarts, no frosting of course, with a glass of OJ.

 

No coffee, thank you, only tea without sugar.

 

Lunch will be another sandwich and it’s looking pretty good that I’ll be heading out for a run this weekend.

 

Of course, it’s looking equally good that I’ll let the baby wake me up at 8 and we’ll sit on the living room floor watching him play until noon.

Lunch

Ham, turkey, pepperoni sammich with provolone, cheddar, and mustard.

Yum.

Fritos on the side, water chaser.

 

My tomatoes will be ripe pretty soon, so I’ll be able to add some organics to lunches soon enough.

 

No snacks.

Had another tall cup of tea, though.  I’ll probably have a Cliff bar when I get home to tide me over to a late dinner—which will likely be left over chicken parmesan.

My arms are killing me

Last night:  Tomato soup and grilled cheese sammiches.  Yum.

 

Water and milk to drink (separately, not combined.)  A quick 6 minute run at a brisk pace.  Don’t know the distance.

 

This morning:  Croissant, eggs, bacon, cheese, no butter.  Potatoes.

 

Tea.

 

My arms are killing me.

 

Lunch:  TBD.

 

Dinner:  TBD.

 

I have a long night, so I may eat some garbage for lunch that’ll get me through to around 8:30 or 9:00.